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How It Works

Understand the mechanics behind PokéMarket prediction markets and how you can profit from your Pokémon card knowledge.

What is PokéMarket?

PokéMarket is a decentralized prediction market platform built on Solana that lets you bet on Pokémon trading card prices. Each market poses a simple yes/no question: "Will [Card Name] exceed $X by [Date]?"

You stake USDC on either Yes or No. When the market closes, an oracle fetches the actual card price, and winners split the entire betting pool proportionally.

The Parimutuel Model

PokéMarket uses a parimutuel betting system, similar to horse racing. Here's how it works:

1. Pooling Phase

All bets on Yes go into the Yes Pool. All bets on No go into the No Pool. The combined total forms the Prize Pool.

2. Dynamic Odds

Odds change in real-time as people bet. If the Yes Pool is $1,000 and No Pool is $3,000, Yes has 25% probability and No has 75% probability. These aren't predictions—they reflect the market's collective sentiment.

3. Resolution

When the market ends, an oracle determines the outcome. If Yes wins, everyone who bet Yes shares the total pool. If No wins, No bettors share the pool.

4. Proportional Payouts

Your share of winnings equals (Your Bet / Winning Pool) × Total Pool. Bet more relative to others on the winning side, earn more.

Example Calculation

Let's walk through a real example:

Market: "Will Charizard VMAX exceed $300 by Dec 31?"

  • • Yes Pool: $4,000 (40 bettors)
  • • No Pool: $6,000 (60 bettors)
  • • Total Pool: $10,000
  • • You bet: $100 on Yes

If Yes Wins

  • Your share: $100 / $4,000 = 2.5%
  • Gross payout: 2.5% × $10,000 = $250
  • Fee (2%): $5
  • Net payout: $245
  • Profit: +$145 (145% ROI)

If No Wins

  • You lose your $100 bet
  • No bettors share the $10,000 pool
  • Loss: -$100 (100% loss)

Oracle-Based Resolution

Market outcomes are determined by Switchboard oracles—decentralized data feeds that fetch real Pokémon card prices from TCGPlayer.

What is Switchboard?

Switchboard is a decentralized oracle network built on Solana. PokéMarket uses Switchboard Surge "On-Demand" pull feeds, which provide reliable, tamper-proof price data for market resolution.

1

Price Feed Setup

Each market is linked to a dedicated Switchboard feed that tracks the card's current market price in the specified condition (Near Mint, etc.).

2

Real-Time Price Updates

Price feeds are updated every 30 seconds to ensure fresh, accurate data is always available for market resolution.

3

Staleness Protection

The smart contract rejects oracle data older than the configured staleness threshold, ensuring only recent prices are used for resolution.

4

Automatic Resolution

When a market's end time is reached, the system automatically resolves it by reading the oracle price and determining the winner.

5

Fallback Protection

If an oracle fails or returns stale data, the admin can mark the market for refund, ensuring all bettors get their original stakes back.

100% On-Chain & Verifiable

Every aspect of PokéMarket is fully on-chain and publicly verifiable. No hidden databases, no centralized control—just transparent smart contract code that anyone can audit.

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Open Source Smart Contract

Our program is deployed and verified on Solana. View the code, inspect every instruction, and verify the logic yourself.

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Transparent Pool Balances

Every bet, pool balance, and payout is recorded on-chain. You can verify the exact state of any market at any time using any Solana explorer.

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Immutable Resolution

Market outcomes are determined by on-chain oracle data. Once resolved, the result is permanent and cannot be changed by anyone—including us.

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Self-Custody

Your funds stay in your wallet until you place a bet. Winnings are distributed directly to your wallet—we never hold your funds in a centralized account.

Verify Our Smart Contract

Don't trust, verify. Our smart contract is publicly deployed and you can inspect every transaction:

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Why Solana?

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Fast Transactions

400ms finality means your bets confirm almost instantly.

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Low Fees

Transactions cost fractions of a cent, making small bets viable.

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Secure

Battle-tested blockchain with billions in total value locked.

Zero Protocol Risk

PokéMarket never takes on risk. The protocol only earns a 2% fee from winners' payouts. This means:

  • •100% of betting pools go to winners (minus the small fee)
  • •The protocol can't be "rugged" by large bets
  • •Sustainable economics regardless of market outcomes
  • •Full transparency—all bets and payouts are on-chain